2009 top ten predicted that the global economic situation
Half Moon Bay in California, held a forum Property Strategy (Industry Strategy Symposium, ISS), the market research institute Global Insight's chief economist and executive vice president of Nariman Behravesh provided in 2009 for his global economic situation made Ten predictions.
For the semiconductor industry, Behravesh that the IC market in 2009 would be "tragic", it will show negative growth; and by 2010, although the industry is likely to resume growth, but the speed may be very slow. In addition, he also believed that the high-tech industry recession period: "worse than in 2001." And in 2010, although economic recovery is expected, but have to wait until 2011 to see a more robust recovery. The following are the top ten Behravesh predicted:
1. U.S. economic recession will be very serious. "The situation will be increasingly bad, and no way to save."
2. Europe and the extent of Japan's economic recession will be the worst in recent decades. "Germany's GDP growth rate fell to 2.2 percent, Japan's recession will be more than the Asian financial crisis more severe."
3. Emerging market growth rate will slow down substantially. "Prices will fall a lot of impact on emerging economies, including Russia, Venezuela, Iran, South Africa and other places; and Persian Gulf countries will be the next victims of the region? In many emerging markets, the growth rate in 2009 may be less than half of 2007. "
4. States of the Central Bank will continue to cut interest rates. "Zero interest rate race has already begun."
5. There will be more economic revitalization programs available, including some large scale. "These economic revitalization programs in the primary goal is to stimulate economic growth, but the secret is behind the people's taxes will increase (especially in the United States)."
6. Price will be in this half a year to maintain a low level. "Oil fell to around 38 U.S. dollars per barrel price."
7. The fear of inflation of deflation will be replaced by anxiety. "Core inflation rate (Core inflation) would fall to around 0.5 percent."
8. Global economic imbalances (Global imbalances) will in the next few years, become increasingly evident. "2009 U.S. current account deficit (Current Account Deficit) will be in 2007 to 40%."
9. Despite the continuing financial turmoil, the dollar or the price will remain relatively strong.
10. The United States and the world's biggest single risk is the lack of courage of the policy response.